Off Topic · Biden out (page 38)

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martin wrote:

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Im not expert, but from what I have read and following Nate Silver there is a general consensus that the polls are built on models not accurate and not to be trusted. Its why so many are so close. If you can't get it right or don't have the formula down then they are doing the best they can with what they got.
Its why nobody is sticking their necks out, or as we say around here "hang your ass out"! The Iowa one was interesting and the disclosed their method. Many are built on previous elections and not deep onto segmenting the demographics. Draconian abortion laws really pulling in older women who are thinking about their families and not down with it. GOP as usual over extended on that issue and it backfires. If Iowa is a proxy for some midwest attitudes that won't bode well for GOP. Demographic of Puerto Rican descent in Florida and Pennsylvania got very riled up with is comments. Can't see it turning the tide in Florida but Pennsylvania were some 400k live?

Trump in Georgia said he wants to build a missile defense system "Like the world has never seen" and do it in Georgia. Any defense companies there? He wants Hershel Walker to be in charge of it. I don't care who you are but when its said Trump cognitive speech is that of a 4th grader you begin to get the picture.
Is this why Trump relates to the uneducated so well? Is it why educated statesmen and business leaders that follow him see a gullible idiot they can manipulate to win his favor? Maybe. Time to decide is upon us.

The GOP machine seems to can't rid itself of Trump and cannot go forward until he is done. Seemed that was so until Biden proved feeble and Trump again the accidental beneficiary. Remember so many in the party walked away from him? He has a list and like dirty Santa will check it twice if he wins. It will be bad. The limits of power will be tested. The Machine was not built for a sociopathic narcissist. The idiot minions that leech to his coat tails in his wake will continue. Im not into conspiracy stuff so I can't really put Nalodian logic out there but I feel good about today.
Trump/Biden was an awful choice for both parties. Would Kamala have been the choice if she had to go thru the primary process? Im amazed how many women are also saying to me "Women are not to lead as president". Naturally Im dumbfounded how poor Trump is as a candidate and lack of fitness to even tend to my garden let alone ascend to the Presidency. 2016 was one thing. He is a worse version. Im amazed he is still able to stand on two feet given his legal issues and the rigors of campaigning. How much can a man take? I suppose when your Trump, a miserable person his sociopathic focus drives him.

Had to get that in.

If I had to hang my ass out there? She wins and not as close as polls think. Trump will cry foul. He already has been. That might say a lot about the outcome.
Will I be right? Well, if I hang it out and lose it, I can always grow another!

Good luck fellas!!

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martin wrote:

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I'm guessing he's going to be so wired from caffeine he won't be able to sleep 5 a.m.

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BigDaddyG wrote:

martin wrote:

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I'm guessing he's going to be so wired from caffeine he won't be able to sleep 5 a.m.

We each have our own vices, right?

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Another exit poll showed a "major reversal" among a key constituency — and could prove ominous for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Latino men are breaking for former President Donald Trump over Harris 54 percent to 44 percent, according to an NBC News exit poll. The outlet called it a "major reversal" from four years ago, when Latino men supported Joe Biden by a whopping 59 percent to 36 percent.

Additionally, Harris's support slipped among Latino women, according to the poll. Harris has a 25-point advantage with that group, down from Biden’s 39-point margin.

GustavBahler wrote:Not good..

Another exit poll showed a "major reversal" among a key constituency — and could prove ominous for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Latino men are breaking for former President Donald Trump over Harris 54 percent to 44 percent, according to an NBC News exit poll. The outlet called it a "major reversal" from four years ago, when Latino men supported Joe Biden by a whopping 59 percent to 36 percent.

Additionally, Harris's support slipped among Latino women, according to the poll. Harris has a 25-point advantage with that group, down from Biden’s 39-point margin.

Yeah, not good on several levels. Wish they could dig deeper into data.

Narrow but clear favorite': NY Times sees race leaning in one candidate's favor
Daniel Hampton
November 5, 2024 9:50PM ET

The New York Times delivered its first presidential estimate Tuesday night as results poured in from Georgia and North Carolina.

Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the Times, noted around 9:20 p.m. ET that the paper of record was making its first estimate on election night.

"For the first time tonight, our estimates indicate that the race leans toward Donald Trump," he said. "He is a narrow but clear favorite to win Georgia and North Carolina."

Cohn added that if Trump wins those states, Vice President Kamala Harris will "probably need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win — a real possibility, but a tall order nonetheless."

"We have very little data from those states, and it will be a long time until we do," he said.

Cohn's post on the Times website comes as the Harris campaign has seen some worrisome exit polls in Georgia and Wisconsin.

Last updated 10:32 p.m. E.T.

Live Presidential Forecast
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Chance of winning
Leaning Trump

84% CHANCE OF VICTORY

Last updated 10:46 p.m. E.T.

Live Presidential Forecast
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Chance of winning
Likely Trump

87% CHANCE OF VICTORY

Electoral college estimate
Trump 298

Harris 240

Popular vote estimate
Trump +1.0

Last updated 11:05 p.m. E.T.

Live Presidential Forecast
Our election model estimates the outcome of the race in real time based on polling data, the votes reported so far and what we expect from remaining votes. Read how it works ›
Chance of winning
Likely Trump

89% CHANCE OF VICTORY

Electoral college estimate
Trump 301

Harris 237

Popular vote estimate
Trump +1.1

Biden waited too long to drop out, which meant that Harris could muscle out a primary challenge so late in the game. She ran a much better campaign than Hillary Clinton (who was on auto-pilot), but they saw Harris as more of the same. And more of the same was polling very badly.

Harris was veep, and couldnt have gotten Biden to drop out sooner, for a legit primary But Biden's inner circle who kept the nation in the dark about the extent of Biden's mental disintigration could have.

GustavBahler wrote:Looks like its over.

Biden waited too long to drop out, which meant that Harris could muscle out a primary challenge so late in the game. She ran a much better campaign than Hillary Clinton (who was on auto-pilot), but they saw Harris as more of the same. And more of the same was polling very badly.

Harris was veep, and couldnt have gotten Biden to drop out sooner, for a legit primary But Biden's inner circle who kept the nation in the dark about the extent of Biden's mental disintigration could have.

We got an even bigger problem now.

NYStateOfMind wrote:Thank God!!!

Yep. Time for some healing and Unity. MAGA